Vordenker
Behavioral Odds
By Jeffrey M. Saltzman, M.A.
If you are the only one she has, make sure you are one in a million. –Irish Folk Song
Imagine, while at a charity event, you had an opportunity to buy one of 15 lottery tickets that were to be sold to 15 different individuals for $20 a ticket. Since this is a charity event, a corporate sponsor is giving coupons for $50 worth of free pizza at the local pizza joint. If you are holding the winning ticket, you will claim the entire prize worth $350.
Would you spend $20 for a one out of 15 chance to win $350? That doesn’t sound too bad, does it? Now say one aspect is changed. Instead of the 15 tickets being sold to 15 different people, the tickets are sold to only two people. You get to buy one ticket and another person, let’s call him Joe, buys the other 14. Joe-the-gambler has a 14 out of 15 chance of winning and you have a one out of 15 chance of winning. Would you still buy the ticket?